Leading U.S. Banks Maintain Commercial Lending Momentum

July 28, 2014

Strong growth in commercial lending for leading U.S. banks has offset declines in other loan categories in recent years, but coming into 2014, there was evidence that the rate of growth in commercial lending was tailing off. However, EMI’s analysis of second quarter 2014 financials for 14 leading banks shows that commercial loan growth remains robust. Average commercial loans rose 8.4% between 2Q13 and 2Q14, up from a 7.4% y/y growth rate in 1Q14.

10 of the 14 banks reported stronger y/y growth in 2Q14 compared to 1Q14. Most banks attributed the stronger growth to improved business confidence. Other factors that drove commercial loan growth included:

Slow but steady growth in commercial loan utilization: for most banks, loan utilization is well below historic norms, but there has been a gradual improvement in this metric in recent quarters. Fifth Third reported that its commercial loan utilization rate rose from 30% in 1Q14 to 32% in 2Q14. Chase’s loan utilization grew three percentage points in the first half of 2014 to 33%, but this remains well below the 40% level that Chase considers to be the historic norm.
Industry targeting propelling overall commercial loan growth. A number of leading banks attributed a significant part of their growth to their targeting of specific industry segments. Huntington Bank reported that half of its commercial loan growth came from targeted verticals. Comerica reported strong y/y growth in its technology and life sciences (+32%), as well as its energy (+10%) portfolios.

As banks have been pushing to grow their commercial loan portfolios in recent years, yields have been steadily decreasing. So, with banks continuing to report strong commercial loan growth in 2Q14, did loan yields continue to decline? The answer: yields continued to decline on a y/y basis for most banks, as the market remains very competitive. For the 11 leading banks in the chart below, 10 reported double-digit basis-point declines in commercial loan yields between 2Q13 and 2Q14. And two of the banks—U.S. Bank and Bank of America—now have yields below 3%. However, there are some signs that the decline in yields is beginning to taper off; three of the banks—Fifth Third, Capital One and Key—reported q/q increases in their commercial loan yields.

Assuming that economic growth and business confidence continue to grow, demand for commercial loans should also continue to remain robust. The following are four areas where banks should concentrate efforts in order to propel their commercial loan growth:

Identify and target high-potential commercial segments. Banks need to look at both external and internal factors in identifying high-potential segments. The external factors include segment size and growth rates, as well as segment clusters within the bank’s commercial banking footprint. Internal factors include having the required in-house skills, experience and product solutions to effectively target these segments. Industry sector represents the most effective segmentation criterion, given the fact that companies within industries tend to have similar characteristics and needs. However, banks should also look to identify opportunities using other business segmentation criteria, such as ethnicity and gender.
Develop consistent marketing for all commercial banking solutions. Due to their silo-ized structures and cultures, different groups within a commercial banking organization may develop their own marketing and sales communications, which can create confusion for clients. Banks should create an overall value proposition for their commercial banking operations, as well as guidelines for messaging and creative executions, to provide a unified face to the client.
Capture cross-sell opportunities. Again due to their traditional structures and cultures, banks have often fallen short in developing synergies across business units and selling the entire bank to the customer. However, banks like Wells Fargo and Huntington have been steadily growing commercial cross-sell rates. Banks should build programs to grow referrals rates between different business units, and should incorporate both retention and cross-sell goals into commercial bankers’ compensation structures.
Invest in Content marketing. In a world where we are overwhelmed with information, commercial clients will be attracted to a bank that can provide insights and advice on various topics. In developing content for commercial clients, the topics need to be of interest and importance to the client. They also need to be topics on which the bank can speak authoritatively. And lastly, banks need to take into account that the objective of content marketing is not to promote its products and solutions, but rather to position itself as a valuable source of intelligence and advice.

Four Takeaways from Credit Card Issuer 1Q14 Financials

April 23, 2014

The following are four key takeaways from the 1Q14 financials for 13 U.S. banks with significant credit card operations.

Some improvement in outstandings performance
Continued volume growth
Charge-off rates at or below historic norms
Little change in industry profitability

Average outstandings for the 13 issuers in 1Q14 were unchanged y/y, an improvement from a 2% y/y decline in 4Q13.

For the four largest issuers—Chase, Bank of America, Citi and Capital One—the rate of decline in average outstandings improved from 5% in 4Q13 to 3% in 1Q14. Capital One highlighted progress made in working through run-off portions of the acquired HSBC portfolio, and it expects outstandings growth in the second half of 2014. Other issuers are ramping up new account production: Bank of America originated more than 1 million new accounts for the third consecutive quarter, while Chase opened 2.1 million new accounts in 1Q14, 24% higher than 1Q13.
For Tier 2 bank card issuers—Wells Fargo and U.S. Bank—the rate of outstandings growth rose from 7% in 4Q13 to 8% in 1Q14. Wells Fargo benefitted from the continued growth in credit card penetration of its retail banking households, which rose from 34% in 1Q13 to 38% in 1Q14.
Similarly, regional bank card issuers grew average loans 6% in 1Q14, compared to 5% in 4Q13.
Credit card loan growth rates for the former ‘monolines’—American Express and Discover—were unchanged at 4%.

Eight leading issuers reported 7% y/y growth in credit card volume in 1Q14, slightly lower than the 4Q13 increase. Three issuers—Wells Fargo, Chase and U.S. Bank—reported double-digit percentage growth in 1Q14. In general, issuers appear committed to continuing to push volume growth, as evidenced by the launch of new rewards cards with strong earnings potential (e.g., American Express Everyday), as well as enhancements to existing rewards programs.

12 of the 13 issuers reported y/y declines in net charge-off rates in 1Q14.

12 issuers now have charge-off rates below 4%. The only major issuer with a charge-off rate above 4% is Capital One, who reported that the acquired HSBC card portfolio added about 25 basis points to its charge-off rate in 1Q14. It expects that the impact of this portfolio would be mostly gone by the end of the second quarter.
10 reported charge-off rate increases between 4Q13 and 1Q14. This were attributed to seasonality, as well as indications that rates are starting to move back towards normalized levels as issuers seek to build outstandings growth.
However, it is worth noting that delinquency rates—which have traditionally been a leading indicator of future directions in charge-off rates—continue to decline on both a y/y and q/q basis for most issuers.

The six issuers who provide card-related revenue and cost information, reported that card profitability was virtually unchanged between 1Q13 and 1Q14. Revenue growth remains elusive, declining 1%, as net interest income fell 2%. The relatively strong rise in card volume did not translate into similar growth in noninterest income, as issuers are enhancing their rewards programs, which eats into interchange income (e.g., Discover reported that its rewards rate 11 bps y/y to 1.03% in 1Q14). Noninterest expenses (reported by five issuers) were unchanged y/y, while provisions for loan losses rose 6%, as issuers anticipate future charge-off increases.

Commercial Loan Growth Slows in 1Q14…But Remains Key Lending Category for Leading U.S. Banks

April 22, 2014

EMI analysis of 14 leading U.S. banks found 7.4% y/y growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans in the first quarter of 2014, down from a 7.9% y/y growth rate in 4Q13. Though three banks (Capital One, Fifth Third and Regions) reported double-digit loan growth, only Capital One exceeded the 4Q13 y/y growth rate. Six of the 14 banks—including two of the top three commercial lenders: Wells Fargo and Chase—had lower y/y growth in 1Q14 vs. 4Q13.

In addition, as banks compete aggressively for commercial loans in the current low interest rate environment, yields continue to decline. Of the 13 banks providing C&I loan yield data, all reported double-digit y/y basis point declines. Banks with the largest y/y declines included Fifth Third (-55 bps to 3.35%) and KeyBank (down 49 bps to 3.29%). For nine of the 13 banks, yields are now below 3.5%.

In spite of the slight decline in C&I loan growth rates, this loan category continues to propel overall bank loan growth. While the 14 banks generated total y/y loan growth of 2% in 1Q14, their non-commercial loan growth was just 0.4%.

The following are four quick tips for banks to maintain—and even accelerate—commercial loan growth:

Target specific geographic markets or vertical industry segments, where the bank already has—or can quickly develop—dedicated capabilities
Re-commit to the small business segment by providing services and support tailored to their unique characteristics and needs
Develop initiatives to increase commercial loan utilization rates (which continue to trail historic averages for many banks, although many banks did highlight recent growth in utilization rates)
Identify and dedicate resources to capture growth in particular loan categories (such as CRE), which have been ignored in recent years in the aftermath of the financial crisis