Credit Card Issuers Increase Focus on the Subprime Market

September 28, 2015

The American Banker Association’s September 2015 Credit Card Market Monitor found a 28% y/y rise in new subprime accounts, indicating that issuers are expanding their focus as they seek to grow revenues. An analysis by EMI Strategic Marketing of the FICO composition of credit card outstandings at the end of 2Q15 finds that many leading card issuers are accelerating growth in sub-prime and low-prime outstandings.

In recent years, Wells Fargo has reported strong y/y growth in all FICO categories.
- In its <600 FICO category, growth has accelerated to double-digit rates in the past three quarters.
- Its 600-639 FICO category has grown by double-digit rates in six of the past seven quarters.

Among national credit card issuers, Bank of America’s subprime outstandings declined 9% y/y in 2Q15, but the rate of subprime loan decline has been steadily slowing in recent quarters. However, Citi’s subprime outstandings growth performance is less consistent, with y/y growth from 4Q13 to 2Q14 followed by declines for the past four quarters.

BofA_subprime_outstandings

There are also mixed trends when analyzing subprime outstandings performance of regional bank card issuers. PNC reported a 6% y/y decline in <620 FICO outstandings in 2Q15, compared to a rise of 1% in 1Q15. Regions reported strong growth in <620 FICO in recent quarters (double-digit y/y rises between 2Q14 and 1Q15), but this fell to just 2% in 2Q15. However, it should be noted that Regions’ total subprime outstandings were just $49 million, so variations in growth rates are not unexpected. SunTrust reported double-digit y/y increases in subprime outstandings for three of the past four quarters.

EMI’s analysis also shows that subprime outstandings growth continues to trail prime and superprime outstandings growth for several reasons:

The large national issuers continue to deal with legacy issues following the financial crisis.
For issuers in general, underwriting standards continue to favor superprime consumers.
And even though many issuers are ramping up subprime account production, it will take some time before it translates into strong growth in subprime outstandings.

Meanwhile, an analysis of FDIC data for the 2Q15 shows strong outstandings growth for subprime credit card specialists, including Comenity (+23% y/y) and Merrick Bank (+16%). As the card industry in general increase its focus on the subprime market, it will be interesting to see if the acceleration in subprime outstandings growth among some regional bank card issuers is replicated by the large national issuers. In addition, growth in subprime credit card outstandings should result in delinquency and charge-off rates rising from their current historically low levels.

Leading U.S. Banks Continue Robust C&I Loan Growth

August 14, 2015

The leading U.S. banks reported a 10% y/y rise in average commercial and industrial (C&I) loans in 2Q15, based on an EMI analysis of the FFIEC call report data.

Interest income on C&I loans rose 5% y/y, indicating that downward pressure on commercial loan pricing persists. This is reflected in the following table, which shows consistent y/y declines in commercial loan yields. However, there are signs that yield are now stabilizing.

Most leading banks report that the commercial loan market is highly competitive. So, how are banks managing to grow their C&I loan portfolios at double-digit rates?

Banks are targeting specialty segments. Many leading banks reported that targeted vertical segments drove overall commercial loan growth in the second quarter. Comerica’s average technology and life sciences loans rose 20% y/y, compared to only 3% for total Comerica middle market loans. And while KeyBank grew its commercial, financial and agricultural loans by 12%, loans to the transportation sector grew by a hefty 42%. A bank’s selection of target segments depends on a number of factors, including segment size and growth, concentration of specific segments in their footprint; and the bank’s heritage in serving this segment. To more effectively build a presence in specific vertical markets, many banks are now creating dedicated teams that include industry experts. In addition, a number of banks are developing segment-specific content, which both establishes bank credibility and creates opportunities for prospect engagement.
There are signs of growth in commercial loan utilization. As the economy and business optimism improves, companies are more inclined to invest to grow their businesses. A number of banks are now reporting a slow-but-steady rise in commercial loan utilization. Regions reported a 97 basis point increase in line utilization during the quarter. Equally, Fifth Third’s commercial line utilization rose from 32% to 33% in the second quarter.
Banks are increasingly focused on optimizing commercial client lifetime value. As in consumer banking, banks are seeking to optimize relationships with commercial clients by taking a lifetime value approach and focusing not just on acquisition, but on all key stages of the relationship (including onboarding, retention and cross-sell). The effect of this approach for banks can be significant. Since the start of 2010, Huntington Bank has grown commercial relationships by 36%, but commercial relationship revenue by 72%. The percentage of Huntington’s commercial clients with 4+ services rose from 32.6% to 43.4% over the past three years. This long-term perspective may also help explain why yields on new commercial remain low. In discussing its quarterly financials, KeyBank claimed that “if we believe we have a client who wants a broad relationship and the credit metrics look good for us, we know that over time we can generate a profitable relationship, even if we are pressured a bit on the loan pricing.”

10 takeaways from leading credit card issuer 2Q15 financials

July 27, 2015

The major U.S. credit card issuers have now published their quarterly financials. A review of these reports by EMI revealed the following 10 trends:

Outstandings are growing. Credit card loan growth is once again being led by regional bank card issuers (such as SunTrust and Wells Fargo who tend to cross-sell cards to existing bank customers), as well as card “monolines” (such as Capital One and American Express). Banks with national credit card operations report lower growth (or even declines) as a result of the lingering effects from the financial crisis, runoff of promotional rate balances, as well as high payment rates. But even here we are seeing signs of growth: although Bank of America reported a 1% y/y decline in average outstandings, it also reported its largest quarter for new account origination since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Volume continues to grow, but with some slowdown. Some leading issuers continue to grow volume at double-digit rates (Wells Fargo grew loans and volume by 15%, boosted in part by the bank’s acquisition of the Dillard’s portfolio). Other issuers had lower volume growth, and many pointed to the impact of lower gas prices. For example, Discover reported volume growth of just 2%, but absent gas prices, this growth was 5%.
Net charge-off rates continue to decline to historic lows. For many leading issuers, net charge-off rates are well below historic norms. In addition, the rates continue to decline; of the 13 issuers studied, 12 reported year-on-year charge-off rate declines.
30+ day delinquency rates are also declining. Delinquency rates tend to be a leading indicator of future charge-offs, so it is notable that 30+ day delinquency rates continue to decline.
The profit picture is mixed for issuers. Six leading issuers provide credit card profitability data, as they operate standalone payment units. Four of the six issuers reported y/y declines in profitability as growing expenses exceeded revenues. However, Chase increased net income for its Card Services unit by 33%, driven by lower costs (9% decline in noninterest expense, and 10% fall in provision for loan losses). American Express grew its U.S. Cards net income by 15%, as revenue growth of 6% and a 4% decline in provisions exceeded a 4% increase in noninterest expense.
Growth in lending and volume are driving revenue growth. In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis and subsequent industry retrenchment, credit card industry revenues fell significantly. As the economy stabilized and then grew, leading issuers continued to struggle to attain revenue growth. Now the return to outstandings growth, as well as continued loan growth, is finally enabling issuers to increase revenues.
To support this revenue growth, card issuers’ noninterest expenses are increasing. The rise in revenues is driving growth in expense areas like marketing and rewards costs. Of the five issuers providing noninterest expense data, four reported y/y increases, led by Discover (+18%) and U.S. Bank (+13%).
Provisions for loan losses are (mainly) decreasing. As net charge-off and delinquency rates continue to decline, three issuers reported y/y declines in their provisions for loan losses. However, Capital One and U.S. Bank increased provisions, with Capital One growing provisions by 69%.
Issuers are increasing credit card yield. Of the seven leading issuers who reported card yield in their financials, six reported y/y growth. The exception was Wells Fargo, which had the highest yield in 2Q15. However, five of the seven reported q/q declines; the exceptions were Fifth Third and SunTrust, which had the lowest yield among reporting issuers.
Issuers are using a range of channels for new account acquisition. In general, cards issuers are continuing to reduce their dependence on direct mail for new card acquisition, and are focusing more investment on digital and branch channels. Chase reported that its online channel accounted for 62% of new card accounts in 2Q15. Even though Citi is continuing to cut its U.S. branch network, it reported that credit card acquisition via branches was up 10% on a same-store basis.