Tag Archives: Capital One

Issuers Report Strong Credit Card Loan Growth Across FICO Segments in 2017

According to the latest FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, U.S. credit card loan growth accelerated in 4Q17, rising 8.2% to $865 billion.

Given the strong overall growth in credit card receivables, are issuers focusing their growth ambitions on particular FICO Score categories? To address this question, EMI analyzed 10K SEC filings for leading credit card issuers.  Overall, we found that issuers reported strong credit card loan growth across their FICO Score segments. We also studied trends in different issuer categories.

  • In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, the three leading issuers—Chase, Bank of America and Citi—focused attention away from near-prime and sub-prime segments and towards superprime consumers.  This led to significant declines in both outstandings and charge-off rates.  More recently, as economic growth and consumer confidence returned, these issuers have refocused on loan growth and are once again targeting lower FICO Score segments.  This is seen in the chart below that shows changes in outstandings by FICO Score segment between end-2016 and end-2017.  As these issuers are pursuing loan growth, their credit card net charge-off rates have also increased (+26 bps y/y at Bank of America, +30 bps to at Chase, +59 bps at Citi-Branded Cards North America).  However, charge-off rates remained below 3% for each of these issuers in 4Q17, and issuers should continue to focus on loan growth while charge-off rates continue at these low levels.

  • Second-tier national credit card issuers—Discover, Capital One and Synchrony—reported relatively strong growth, but with different FICO Score segment trends.  Discover reported 9% y/y growth, with no y/y change in share of outstandings for the <660 and 600+ segments.  Capital One had a similar overall growth rate (8%), but this was driven in part by the acquisition of the Cabela’s card portfolio, which boosted the >660 FICO segment’s share of outstandings.  It is also worth noting that the <660 FICO segment accounted for 34% of Capital One’s credit card portfolio at the end of 2017, compared to 25% of Synchrony’s portfolio, and 18% at Discover.

  • Regional credit card issuers present a mixed picture when it comes to the FICO Score segment composition of their credit card portfolios. This is driven by a number of factors, including a large variation in portfolio sizes, as well as their credit card underwriting standards.  Most issuers report growth across their portfolios, with strong growth rates in the low FICO Score segments.  Fifth Third reported very strong growth for its <660 segment, but this segment only accounts for 3% of its portfolio.  Regions’ 20% growth in its <620 FICO segment was driven by its launch of a credit secured card in July 2017.

Finally, as most issuers reported strong growth in their credit card portfolios in 2017, charge-off rates are also on the rise, growing 45 bps y/y to 3.61% at the end of 2017.  While the overall charge-off rate has risen from a low of 2.19% in 3Q15, it is down both from post-recessionary highs of 13.13% in 1Q10, and even the 4% levels in 2007, prior to the Financial Crisis.  With charge-off rates still below 4%, the leading issuers continue to be comfortable with promoting credit card loan growth.

Leading U.S. Banks Report Modest Increase in Marketing Budgets in 2017

Marketing spend by the top 40 banks reached nearly $14 billion in 2017, up 1.8% on average from the previous year–and once again, 5 banks spent over a billion dollars on marketing. EMI analysis of bank spending reveals:

  • 30 of the 40 largest banks grew marketing spend in 2017, with 17 reporting double-digit growth.
  • As in past years, banks with national credit card franchises lead all others, in both absolute terms and in their marketing intensity (marketing spend relative to revenues). In 2017, spending among these card leaders declined, as focus shifted from acquisition to portfolio marketing.
  • Two banks notable for substantial 2017 marketing increases are Goldman Sachs Bank focused on promotion of its online lending platform, Marcus by Goldman Sachs, and U.S. Bank capitalizing on brand-building around the Super Bowl, held last week at the Minneapolis stadium bearing the bank’s name.

EMI annual analysis of Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council (FFIEC) call report data for 40 leading U.S. banks distills both absolute spending and marketing intensity ratios, as measured by spend percentage of net revenues (net interest income plus noninterest income).  Results are reported below.

Advertising and Marketing Spending Highlights

19 banks/bank charters had advertising and marketing budgets of more than $100 million.  5 had billion-dollar-plus budgets (JPMorgan Chase, American Express, Capital One, Citigroup and Bank of America).

Of the 17 banks reporting double-digit growth, the two with the largest absolute increases in their marketing budgets were:

  • U.S. Bank: +$107 million, with a focus on growing national profile behind the increased marketing spend, including heavy branding around the Super Bowl, which was held last Sunday at the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
  • Goldman Sachs Bank: +$80 million, driven by an advertising campaign to promote Marcus by Goldman Sachs, its online personal lending platform.
  • First Republic was also notable for its 46% increase–a strategy that seems to have paid off with 18%+ revenue growth reported by the San Francisco-based bank in 2017.

Other banks boosted marketing spend to support new campaigns in 2017.

  • Fifth Third (+10% to $115 million) launched a campaign in May 2017 that played on its “5/3” name, promoting “Banking that’s a Fifth Third Better”
  • BB&T (+10% to $89 million) introduced a new brand campaign and tagline (“All we see is you”) in September 2017.
  • SunTrust (+38% to $220 million) rolled out its ‘Confidence Starts Here’ ad campaign in March 2017, building on its onUp movement focused on building financial well-being.

Marketing spend declines were led by:

  • Capital One: decline of $139 million, with a strong drop in spending in its card unit partially offset by a $23 million rise in its retail banking unit.
  • American Express: down $111 million, although this follows a ramp up of marketing and promotion spending in recent years.  American Express is also increasing its focus on targeting existing clients, which typically involves lower marketing spend.

Marketing Intensity Highlights

Even though 30 banks increased their marketing budgets in 2017, only 14 increased their bank marketing ratios, meaning that growth in marketing spend did not match the rise in net revenues.  Banks with the strongest growth in their marketing ratios were Goldman Sachs Bank (+183 basis points), SunTrust (+61 bps) and U.S. Bank (+44 bps).

Most retail banks have marketing ratios of 1-3%. Those with the highest marketing ratios include Santander Bank (4.1%, due to continued growth in the bank’s U.S. marketing budgets in recent years) and BMO Harris (3.4%, following a 17% rise in marketing spend in 2017).  4 banks have marketing ratios of less than 1%.  Most notable in this category is Wells Fargo, which has traditionally–and infamously–focused on sales and required much lower advertising budgets than its peers.  Wells Fargo did launch a new integrated marketing campaign in April 2017, which it reported was focused on “rebuilding trust.”  This contributed to a 4% rise in its advertising and marketing budget in 2017, but its spend levels remain well below comparably-sized banks.

We expect that banks will maintain or even increase their marketing budgets in 2018 to build brand awareness and affinity, as well as to promote new products and services–in particular those focused on digital transformation.  However, many banks remain focused on improving efficiency ratios, and marketing budgets are often on the firing line when banks look cut costs.  However these cuts–when executed without a careful strategy for maximize marketing ROI–often sacrifice market share gain and longer-term growth.

Low FICO Score Categories Drive Loan Growth for Leading Credit Card Issuers

In a March 2017 blog post, EMI highlighted growth in credit card outstandings across the credit spectrum for leading credit card issuers.  Our recent analysis of 3Q17 10Q SEC filings for these companies shows that this trend is continuing.

The top three issuers—Bank of America, Chase, and Citigroup—reported growth across all FICO Score segments, with strongest growth coming in the lowest segment.  In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, issuers pulled back on lending to low-prime and sub-prime consumers.  With the return to steady economic growth in recent years—and with issuers now believing that they have more robust underwriting and pricing systems—issuers are now refocusing on consumers in lower FICO Score categories.

Assets at both Capital One and Discover skew heavily towards credit card loans.  Discover generated 9% y/y rise in credit card outstandings, led by 16% rise in loans to consumers with a <600 FICO Score.  Capital One bucked the overall trend, with lower growth for its <660 FICO Score segment.  However, it should be taken into account that this segment accounts for 35% of its total credit card outstandings (vs. 15% at Chase, 16% at Citi, and 19% at Discover), so it has less scope for strong growth.

The leading regional bank card issuers—who focus on cross-selling credit cards to existing bank clients—reported a similar pattern.  SunTrust has continued its very strong growth trajectory, with overall growth of 16% led by the <620 category.  Regions followed a similar pattern, with 7% overall growth in outstandings driven by a 35% rise in the subprime (<620) segment. PNC had strong growth across the credit spectrum.  Fifth Third had strong growth in the <660 segment, but from a very low base.  The y/y decline in outstandings in its 720+ category resulted in Fifth Third overall credit card outstandings remaining unchanged.  Wells Fargo’s overall growth rate (+4% y/y) has slowed considerably in recent quarters.  It generated steady growth across most categories, with the exception of the 600-680 FICO range.