Are banks poised to boost marketing budgets?

December 3, 2014

In recent years, banks have been primarily focused on cost cutting. However, as the U.S. economic recovery continues to gain momentum, banks are identifying opportunities for revenue growth. As banks look to capture this, they will obviously be looking at the size and composition of their marketing budgets.

EMI’s analysis of the latest FDIC data for 20 leading retail banks found little evidence that banks are growing their marketing budgets. In fact, marketing spending for these banks over the first 9 months of 2014 was 2% lower than the same period in 2013. As seen in figure 1, 10 of the 20 banks reported growth in their marketing budgets, led by PNC and Capital One.

These 20 banks invested an average of 1.5% of their net revenues in marketing during the first 9 months of 2014. Although this marketing-to-revenue ratio rose 2 bps y/y, it is well below the 2% average that existed prior to the financial crisis. For banks looking to grow revenues, they will need to return marketing-to-revenue back to this 2% level.

Figure 2 shows that 14 of the 20 banks have marketing-to-revenue ratios of between 1% and 2%. For Chase, Bank of America and Capital One, the ratios are for their retail bank charters; marketing-to-revenue ratios for these banks’ credit card charters are much higher (as seen in figure 3).

Of course, banks looking to increase their marketing investment in order to grow revenues also need to ensure that these marketing budgets are effectively deployed, in order to optimize marketing ROI. The following are some considerations for banks as they prepare marketing budgets for 2015:

Consumer perceptions of banks have changed. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks suffered reputational damage as they were seen as key contributors to the crisis. In recent years, banks have worked hard to change their business models in order to focus on their core competencies (and this has been recently seen in improved customer satisfaction ratings). Marketing will play a key role in communicating banks’ key positioning as trusted providers of financial services and support.
Consumer banking behavior has changed. Consumer adoption of self-service-channels (online, mobile, ATM) has now attained critical mass and these channels account for a majority of everyday banking transactions. These channels create significant advertising and cross-selling opportunities (and challenges) for banks.
Bank branches have untapped marketing potential. As everyday bank transactions move to self-service channels, banks are cutting branch numbers and reinventing various aspects of the branch (size, layout, staffing, integration with other channels). Banks should also consider the fact that the branch is the key physical expression of the bank brand, and should allocate a portion of their marketing budgets to capturing branches’ marketing potential.
Bank need to embrace non-traditional marketing channels. Younger demographic segments (such as millennials) have very different media consumption patterns than their older peers, with significantly higher usage of online/mobile and social media. However, banks’ innate conservatism has resulted in their failure to fully embrace new embrace new media. Banks need to both significantly increase their investment in non-traditional marketing channels, but also find innovative ways to convey their core messages to a new audience.

Positive Signs in Leading Credit Card Issuers’ 2Q14 Financials

August 5, 2014

The 2Q14 financials for leading U.S. credit card issuers had a number of positive elements, notably a return to outstandings growth, along with continued strong performance in volume and credit quality metrics.

Outstandings

In a recent EMI blog post, we suggested that the extended series of declines in credit card outstandings had bottomed out. The latest quarterly performance metrics for the leading U.S. credit card issuers provides more evidence of this turnaround: EMI’s analysis of 13 leading U.S. card issuers found a 1% year-on-year (y/y) growth rate in average outstandings in 2Q14.

Growth was led by SunTrust, which grew outstandings 19% y/y, albeit from a low base. Wells Fargo continued its strong outstandings growth rate, with a 10% y/y increase as Wells Fargo credit card penetration of retail banking households reached 39% (from 35% in 2Q13). The top four issuers—Chase, Bank of America, Capital One and Citi—once again acted as a brake on overall industry growth. However, even these four issuers are seeing positive signs. Chase’s new account production rose 40%. Capital One reported a 1% rise in end-of-period outstandings, as it returned to growth earlier than anticipated, driven by a combination of rewards, non-high-balance revolvers, and credit line increases. Even though Citi reported a 3% y/y decline, it attributed this to continued run-off in promotional rate balances, whereas full-rate balances have grown for five consecutive quarters.

Volume

In the absence of credit card outstandings growth in recent years, issuers have focused on volume growth. This growth continued and even accelerated in the most recent quarter (for the eight leading issuers reporting card volume, y/y volume growth rose from 7% in 1Q14 to 9% in 2Q14). Issuers attributed this growth to a combination of new account growth and increases in average cardholder spending.

Six of the eight issuers in the above chart had stronger y/y volume growth in 2Q14 compared to 1Q14. As in previous quarters, Wells Fargo and Chase led the industry. Wells Fargo benefited from both account growth as well as a 14% rise in average spending per account, as more cardholders moved their Wells Fargo card to top of wallet. Capital One reported an 11% growth rate, but claimed that if private-label cards were excluded, its growth rate was 16%, driven by continued marketing and customer experience initiatives.

Credit Quality

With charge-off and delinquency rates below historic norms for many issuers, one would expect that a push for outstandings growth would lead to upward pressure on these rates. However, this has not been the case, and issuers continued to report significant y/y and q/q declines in charge-off rates in 2Q14.

Of the 12 leading issuers reporting credit-card charge-off data, 10 reported double-digit y/y declines. The two main “monolines”—American Express and Discover—continued to have the lowest rates, but SunTrust and Chase now also have charge-off rates below 3%.

Implications

These positive metrics are clear signs that the credit card industry’s recovery from the 2008 financial crisis and resulting Great Recession, is gaining momentum. For issuers looking to capture a share of this growth, the following are some areas they should consider:

Cross-sell and upsell existing customers. There has been much coverage in the industry of Wells Fargo’s continued growth in its credit card penetration rate, which has fueled strong outstandings and volume growth. Regional bank card issuers also tend to follow this cross-sell model, although most of these lack Wells Fargo’s cross-sell expertise and experience. However, leading issuers are now taking a growing interest in cross-selling existing customers; for example, Bank of America reported that 65% of its new credit cards issued in 2Q14 were to existing bank clients. Issuers should also commit to regularly assessing existing cardholder qualification for card “upgrades”, and then make appropriate upsell offers.
Invest in multiple credit card sales channels. For many years, direct mail was the overwhelmingly dominant channel for new account generation. However, a number of factors are leading to a change in the credit card sales channel mix, including:
- A general decline in direct mail as a marketing channel, driven by both lower response and the emergence of lower-cost channels.
- Increased customer usage of online and mobile banking channels, and increased bank industry recognition of the sales potential of these channels. 54% of new Chase credit card accounts in 2Q14 were acquired online.
- The reduced usage of bank branches for everyday transaction processing has led to a redefinition of their role, with banks now looking to realize branches’ potential as sales channels. Wells Fargo recently reported that 83% of its general-purpose credit cards were sold in its Community Banking stores.
Develop offers to drive desired cardholder behavior. Issuers need to have a series of offers available to drive specific cardholder actions at different stages of the customer life cycle (e.g., activation within 90 days of acquisition; retention during the card expiration period; card usage and referrals on an ongoing basis), which ultimately help optimize customer lifetime value.
Continue to focus on rewards. Issuers are increasingly aware that rewards products and programs are integral to achieving retention and growth objectives, so there is a need to continually assess how key program elements—such as earn rates (basic and bonus) and user experience—stack up against competitors.
Invest in credit card brands. It is notable in recent years that many credit card issuers are creating and supporting card brands, both to generate build stronger customer awareness, as well as acting as a point of differentiation from competitors. These new brands apply to both:
- Individual cards (e.g., Santander Bank’s Bravo and Sphere cards, and Huntington’s Voice card)
- Card portfolios; this is especially prevalent in the small business sector, with issuers like Chase (Ink), Capital One (Spark Business) and U.S. Bank (Business Edge) all branding their small business card portfolios.

Has the decline in card outstandings bottomed out?

June 19, 2014

A recent American Banker article discussed a credit card rebound, referring to data from the Federal Reserve that showed strong growth in revolving consumer credit in April 2014. This supports findings in a recent EMI blog (“Four Takeaways from Credit Card Issuer 1Q14 Financials“), which found signs of an improvement in credit card outstandings for the leading issuers.

The FDIC has recently published bank data for the first quarter of 2014. EMI’s analysis of this data provides further evidence that the decline in credit card outstandings is bottoming out.

Credit card outstandings fell 0.3% between end-1Q13 to end-1Q14. This marked an improvement from a decline of 0.7% between end-2012 and end-2013.
The overall decline is due to the outstandings performance of the four largest issuers (Chase, Bank of America, Citi, and Capital One) who together accounted for 63% of total industry outstandings at the end of March 2014. These four leaders reported a 2% y/y decline in outstandings.
Outside of these four issuers, outstandings for the rest of the industry rose 3% y/y. Growth in outstandings is led by a number of sectors, as summarized in the following table:

Furthermore, even though the leading issuers have been dragging down overall outstandings performance for a number of years, there are indications that these declines are bottoming out, and loan portfolios are even poised to grow in the coming quarters:

Chase credit card outstandings were virtually unchanged between end-1Q13 and end-1Q14. At its 2014 Investor Day, Chase reported growth in its core card loan portfolio (excluding its run-off portfolio), although its focus has been on growing volume rather than loans
Bank of America reported a 1% decline in card outstandings, but expects this decline in bottom out this year. Card issuance is strong at more than 1 million new accounts in 1Q14 (compared to a quarterly average of about just over 800,000 in 2012)
Capital One reported that its domestic card loan portfolio fell 3% y/y in 1Q14, mainly due to its run-off portfolio. However, it reported that it was seeing loan growth in some key consumer segments, such as transactors. And in a recent Morgan Stanley conference, Capital One claimed that it expects loan growth in July, earlier than anticipated.

So, how can issuers best prepare for outstandings growth? The following are three quick tips:

Set realistic expectations. Don’t expect a return to the outstandings levels that prevailed prior to the 2008 financial crisis and resulting recession. Consumer attitudes to credit card have changed since then, as they see credit cards less as an easy source of credit (evidenced by high monthly payment rates) and more as an effective payment tool (seen in the continued strong volume growth rates)
Prepare the groundwork for future growth. Rather than driving up loan growth (and potential charge-off rates) through overly aggressive pricing offers, issuers should concentrate on the basics: providing a robust product suite with value-added features to meet cardholder spending and borrowing needs; building flexible reward programs; and setting pricing based on appropriate levels of risk and reward.
Focus efforts on existing customers. Traditionally, credit card issuers have focused their marketing on new customer acquisition. Now, a new generation of credit card issuers (led by Wells Fargo and followed by regionals banks that have recently started to issue cards in-house) are growing their portfolios by cross-selling credit cards to existing bank clients. In addition, simple card acquisition is not enough; issuers need to develop communications and offers to drive activation, retention, preference and increased usage, thereby optimizing customer lifetime value.