Tag Archives: American Express

Trends Impacting Credit Card Marketing

A review of various bank and credit card issuer presentations at the recent Barclays Global Financial Services conference revealed a number of trends that could have a significant impact on how credit cards are being marketed.

  • Priority is cross-selling existing customers.  Regional banks that have recently re-acquired their branded credit card portfolios (such as KeyBank and Huntington) are following the lead of Wells Fargo model, in cross-selling credit cards to existing customers (35% of Wells Fargo’s retail households have a Wells Fargo credit card).
    • Regions Bank—which acquired its card portfolio two years ago—reported that its credit card penetration rate is now 13%, and it has ambitions to grow this to 20%.  In addition, even issuers with a national credit card franchise are concentrating efforts on their own customer bases.
    • U.S. Bank is increasingly focused on deepening customer relationships and has increased card penetration to 34%.
    • And Bank of America claimed that 60% of new cards issued in the second quarter of 2013 were to existing customers.
  • The online channel is now the most popular method for new account production.  The popularity of the online channel for new cardholder acquisition is largely driven by its lower cost-per-acquisition relative to other channels, such as direct mail.  It is also a by-product of consumers’ increased comfort with using electronic channels to manage their finances.
    • American Express reported that more than 50% of card acquisition comes through online channels.
    • 71% of Bank of America’s new U.S. consumers credit card accounts came from branch and online channels in 2Q13, compared to 57% in 2Q11.
    • And these examples are consistent with recent data from Chase, who reported in 2Q13 that 53% of credit card accounts were acquired online.
  • Card issuance is growing. 
    • Bank of America claimed that its card issuance is at its highest level since 2008.
    • This mirrors recent data from Experian, which found that overall bank card origination volume (based on credit issued) jumped 21% y/y to $69 billion in 2Q12, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2008.
  • Credit quality remains strong. Most issuers do not see any significant reversal in the continued downward trajectory in credit card charge-off and delinquency rates.
    • Discover does not envisage significant upward movement in its loss rates over the next 12 months.
    • Chase attributed part of the improvement in its credit-quality metrics to a shift in its customer mix toward higher-income consumers.
  • The competitive battle is centered on rewards.  Although most issuers now offer attractive teaser rates on their main cards, issuers are looking to differentiate and create a competitive advantage through their rewards programs.
    • Discover said that “rewards is the new competitive landscape” and this realization influenced the launch of its Discover It card.
    • U.S. Bank is looking to differentiate by taking its rewards program in-house, claiming that this will enable it improve redemption value, enhance the customer experience and customize rewards.

Tentative Recovery in U.S. Credit Card Lending Continues in 1Q13

EMI’s analysis of recently-published U.S. bank data by the FDIC reveals that credit card outstandings rose 1.6% y/y to the end of 1Q13.  Outstandings have been recovering in recent quarters, following a protracted period of declines as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.  In addition, net credit card charge-offs continue to decline, falling 12% y/y in 1Q13.

Our analysis also finds that:

  • 1,238 U.S. banks (19% of the total) have card assets, with 6% of banks having more than $1 million in card assets.  55 banks have more than $100 million in outstandings, with just 23 banks holding more than $1 billion in credit card loans.
    • Of the 55% with more than $100 million in assets, 31(56%) reported increases in their credit card loan portfolios between end-1Q12 and end-1Q13
  • The three largest credit card issuers–Citibank, Chase and Bank of America–all continued to report credit card loan declines, as they continue to deleverage.  The cumulative decline for these three issuers was 5%.
  • The former “monolines”–American Express, Discover and Capital One–all increased outstandings.  Capital One reported a 44% increase, largely due to the acquisition of the HSBC card portfolio.  American Express grew credit card loans 6%, with Discover’s outstandings rising by 7%.
  • Many regional banks continued to increase credit card lending, albeit from significantly lower bases than their national bank counterparts.

These trends in credit card outstandings–slow overall growth, declines among the big three issuers, growth for monolines and regional banks–are consistent with industry predictions that EMI published in a blog earlier this year.

Growth Remains Elusive For Leading U.S. Credit Card Issuers

EMI analysis of the largest credit card issuer financial results for 1Q13 reveals the following trends:

  • Outstandings (11 issuers reporting, analysis excludes Capital One, which acquired the HSBC card portfolio in 2012, so its growth rate would skew the data): A weighted average of 11 leading credit cards issuers shows that average credit card outstandings fell 2% year-over-year (y/y) in 1Q13. The three largest issuers – Chase, Bank of America and Citi – all reported y/y declines.  However, outstandings growth came from Wells Fargo (who reported that credit card penetration of retail banking households rose from 30% in 1Q12 to 34% in 1Q13), regional banks with relatively small portfolios (e.g., PNC, SunTrust and Fifth Third), as well as “monolines” (American Express and Discover). These outstandings trends bear out the industry predictions we made in a blog at the start of 2013.

  • Volumes (8 issuers reporting): leading issuers grew credit card volume 6% y/y in 1Q13, which is relatively consistent with recent quarters. However, growth rates have moderated from the 2010-2011 levels, when issuers were overwhelming focused on building volumes. Wells Fargo led the way with a 14% volume growth rate, driven by an 18% rise in new consumer credit card accounts.
  • Revenues and expenses (5 issuers reporting): Revenues rose 2% y/y, led by Discover (+11%) and American Express (+5%). The lack of outstandings growth means that net interest income remains relatively anemic, with a rise of 1% y/y.  Noninterest income grew 5%, with relatively healthy growth rates from American Express, Discover and Bank of America. Noninterest expenses fell 1%, with both Chase and Bank of America reporting significant declines (reductions of 8% and 7%, respectively). Provisions for loan losses rose 5%, albeit from very low levels in 1Q12.
  • Charge-off rates (11 issuers reporting): The weighted average charge-off rate for these 11 issuers was 3.62%, down 65 basis points (bps) y/y, but up 5 bps q/q. 10 issuers reported charge-off rate y/y declines.  The exception was Capital One, which acquired the HSBC credit card portfolio (with a higher charge-off rate) in 2012.  Compared to 4Q12, 10 issuers reported charge-off rate increases and the other two were unchanged, indicating that the era of charge-off rate declines may be coming to an end.
  • 30+ day delinquency rates (8 issuers reporting): 7 of the 8 issuers providing 30+ day delinquency rate data reported y/y declines. As with the charge-off rate, the exception is Capital One. Interestingly, 7 of the 8 issuers reported q/q declines.  The exception was American Express, whose 30+ day delinquency rate was unchanged.  So, while the period of charge-off rate declines may be ending, the continued decline in delinquency rates will moderate charge-off rate increases.