Low FICO Score Categories Drive Loan Growth for Leading Credit Card Issuers

In a March 2017 blog post, EMI highlighted growth in credit card outstandings across the credit spectrum for leading credit card issuers.  Our recent analysis of 3Q17 10Q SEC filings for these companies shows that this trend is continuing.

The top three issuers—Bank of America, Chase, and Citigroup—reported growth across all FICO Score segments, with strongest growth coming in the lowest segment.  In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, issuers pulled back on lending to low-prime and sub-prime consumers.  With the return to steady economic growth in recent years—and with issuers now believing that they have more robust underwriting and pricing systems—issuers are now refocusing on consumers in lower FICO Score categories.

Assets at both Capital One and Discover skew heavily towards credit card loans.  Discover generated 9% y/y rise in credit card outstandings, led by 16% rise in loans to consumers with a <600 FICO Score.  Capital One bucked the overall trend, with lower growth for its <660 FICO Score segment.  However, it should be taken into account that this segment accounts for 35% of its total credit card outstandings (vs. 15% at Chase, 16% at Citi, and 19% at Discover), so it has less scope for strong growth.

The leading regional bank card issuers—who focus on cross-selling credit cards to existing bank clients—reported a similar pattern.  SunTrust has continued its very strong growth trajectory, with overall growth of 16% led by the <620 category.  Regions followed a similar pattern, with 7% overall growth in outstandings driven by a 35% rise in the subprime (<620) segment. PNC had strong growth across the credit spectrum.  Fifth Third had strong growth in the <660 segment, but from a very low base.  The y/y decline in outstandings in its 720+ category resulted in Fifth Third overall credit card outstandings remaining unchanged.  Wells Fargo’s overall growth rate (+4% y/y) has slowed considerably in recent quarters.  It generated steady growth across most categories, with the exception of the 600-680 FICO range.

Summarizing 2Q17 Credit Card Outstanding and Charge-Off Trends

In a recent blog post, EMI discussed growth trends in credit card outstandings and charge-off rates, and the importance of ensuring that both remain at manageable levels. Now, our analysis of 2Q17 financials for leading issuers, as well as the latest reports from the FDIC and FFIEC, reveal the following trends on these two key credit card metrics:

  • Issuers continue to report steady y/y growth in credit card outstandings, although the rate of growth has moderated in recent quarters. According to the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile, credit card loans rose 4.5% to $780 billion. The growth rate was unchanged from the previous quarter, but marked a reduction from the 6%+ rates in the first three quarters of 2016.

  • According to FFIEC call reports, regional bank card issuers like Huntington, SunTrust and City National reported the strongest y/y growth rates in credit card loans in 2Q17. Leading issuers also generated steady credit card loan growth: Citibank (+14% y/y, boosted by the acquisition of the Costco portfolio), Chase (+7%), Capital One (+6%) and Bank of America (+3%).

  • Leading issuers are growing credit card outstandings across the FICO Score spectrum.  Our analysis of selected credit card issuers’ 2Q17 10Q SEC filings found that issuers are reporting loan growth in all of their FICO Score segments, with most experiencing strongest growth in the sub-prime and near-prime categories. However, significant differences remain in the FICO Score composition of different card portfolios. For example, 35% of Capital One’s consumer credit card outstandings are held by people with a FICO Score of 660 or lower, but this segment only accounts for 12% of Chase outstandings and 14% of Citi’s portfolio.

  • The rise in credit card outstandings is being mirrored by continued growth in net charge-off rates.  According to the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, the average charge-off rate was 3.66% in 2Q17. This marked a significant y/y rise of 55 basis points.  However, the rate was only up 3 bps from the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in the growth trajectory. Moreover, the current rate remains low by historic standards.

Banks Seek to Leverage Surveys to Build Small Businesses Engagement

In recent weeks, a range of leading national and regional banks have carried out small business surveys, many of which were timed to coincide with 2017 National Small Business Week (April 30-May 6). These include new surveys from Citizens Bank (Small Business Pulse) and Fifth Third Bank.

These surveys are designed to:

  • Generate brand awareness among small business owners
  • Underline the bank’s commitment to this market
  • Position the bank as a thought leader in the small business space
  • Promote the bank’s small business solutions

The following are six approaches that banks are using to leverage small business surveys to drive engagement with their small business clients and prospects:

  1. Establish a branded index.  Many banks measure small business optimism via an index. This enables them to both track this metric over time, as well as generate general business press attention. Citizens recently-published survey includes the Citizens Business Pulse Index, which is its measure of the small business climate. Other indexes include the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index and the Capital One Small Business Growth Index.
  2. Create a recurring survey. Many of the leading banks now conduct surveys on a quarterly, biannual or annual basis, which enables them to track small business metrics over time. Capital One has been tracking a Small Business Confidence Score consistently since 2008.
  3. Survey topics of interest. Most surveys focus on small business optimism and outlook. However, surveys also look to differentiate by covering other issues that should be of interest to small businesses. The U.S. Bank Small Business Annual Survey studies small business owners’ personal satisfaction as well as the desired attributes they want from their business bank.
  4. Use infographics to summarize survey findings. Presenting key findings from the survey (which will typically include a series of statistics) in a visually-appealing format allows readers to quick grasp important points the bank wants to make. Wells Fargo published a lengthy survey report, but it also created a one-page infographic that summarizes key takeaways.
  5. Version the survey for target marketsBank of America creates versions of its Business Advantage Small Business Owner Report for 10 target markets (Atlanta; Boston; Chicago; Dallas/Fort Worth; Houston; Los Angeles; New York; Miami; San Francisco; and Washington, D.C.). Similarly, PNC publishes its Spring Economic Outlook Survey findings for 10 regional markets.
  6. Position the bank (subtly) as a small business solutions providerFifth Third’s recent small business survey included findings on funding growth, while also positioning the bank as “committed to the development of small businesses throughout the Bank’s footprint.