Credit Card Issuers Continue to Pursue Spend-Centric Model

First quarter 2012 results of the leading U.S. credit card issuers reveal that they are continuing to drive spending growth by cardholders. Four of the seven leading issuers reported double-digit year-on-year growth rates, led by Chase and Capital One at 15%, followed by U.S. Bank at 14% and American Express at 12% (American Express also reported that small business card volume rose 16% y/y, its highest growth rate since before the financial crisis.  In contrast, Bank of America and Citi had anemic – albeit positive – growth rates.

The situation with regard to lending growth is more mixed. With the return to economic growth, and the significant improvement in credit quality, issuers have been looking to increase outstandings. However, consumers still bear the scars of the financial crisis and remain reluctant to increase their card borrowing. In addition, many issuers have not yet significantly relaxed the stricter underwriting standards that came into place in 2008 and 2009. The three largest issuers (in terms of outstandings) all reported y/y declines, with Bank of America’s average loans falling 11%. Bank of America’s average U.S. credit card outstandings have declined almost 22% over the past two years, and fell below $100 billion in the most recent quarter.  (It should be noted that this decline is partly attributable to card portfolio sales, with the bank selling portfolios over the past year to Regions, Sovereign and Barclaycard.)  Bank of America and Citi were the two issuers with declines in both volumes and outstandings. Chase also reported a y/y decline in average outstandings, but this was due to the sale of the Kohl’s private label portfolio in the first quarter of 2011.

So, at first viewing, we see some credit card portfolio retrenchment among those banks like Bank of America and Citi that were hardest hit by the financial crisis, while other leading issuers are now growing their portfolios. However, at closer inspection, Bank of America and Citi are also positioning themselves for future card growth. Citi had credit card account growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. And Bank of America reported that new accounts in 1Q12 were up 19% y/y.

In addition, it is notable that Bank of America is changing the composition of its card portfolio by selling off some private-label card portfolios and changing how cards are originated. (It reported that half of the 800,000 cards originated in the first quarter came through its branch channel.)

Best Practices in Retail Financial Services Symposium: Maximizing opportunities with customers who switch banks

At this year’s Best Practices in Retail Financial Services Symposium, J. Michael Beird of J.D. Power and Associates and Becky DeGeorge of U.S. Bank illuminated some important trends around customers who switch their primary bank. The number of customers doing this has increased for the second year in a row – in spite of the fairly high level of effort required to switch to a new primary bank.

How can banks take advantage of this trend?

An obvious response might be to ramp up prospecting efforts – but the speakers pointed out that the reason a customer selects a bank is highly relevant to their long-term profitability. J.D. Power and Associates has found that customers who choose a bank because of the bank’s community involvement are the most loyal and tend to give that bank greatest share of wallet; customers who switch to a bank based on a promotion are, unsurprisingly, at the opposite end of spectrum.

Graph: Value Drivers Associated with Primary Purchase Triggers

Banks looking to reap the benefits of the current turbulent landscape through prospecting must understand who they are targeting as their leads, as it should drastically change their acquisition strategy.

What’s even more important than acquiring new customers is maximizing their relationship with your bank once they’ve come in the door. How can you avoid repeating the mistakes of the competitors that drove these customers to switch banks in the first place?

The speakers outlined the necessary first steps for onboarding customers: satisfaction of a new bank customer is optimized if they receive a thorough needs assessment and a follow-up phone call within 2 days. This initial interaction has direct impacts on loyalty and share of wallet.

A complete needs assessment gets at what led the customer to switch as well as how they operate on a daily basis:

  • What were they looking for in their last banking relationship that they weren’t getting?
  • What don’t they like about their last bank?
  • What other accounts (aside from the one they originally came for) do they need or use?
  • How many checks do they write a month?

Such an assessment provides the customer with a positive first impression of the bank, and reassures the customer that they have made a correct decision in switching from a bank where they’ve had bad experiences.

From there, having the person who opened the first account with a new customer call within 2 days to say thank you enhances that customer’s first experience with your bank. It’s a simple step that, according to J.D. Power and Associates, does make a measurable difference in customer satisfaction.

To build on the speakers’ insights, banks targeting customers who switch institutions need to extend and support the customer experience throughout the life of the relationship. How can you use the insights gained from the needs assessment? Are there other simple actions, like that first phone call, that build loyalty in your customers?

Credit quality continues to improve for leading U.S. card issuers

The leading U.S. credit card issuers continue to report strong improvements in their net charge-off rates.

  • Of the 11 issuers analyzed, eight had 3Q11 net charge-off rates below 5%.  Four had rates below 4%, with American Express leading the industry, at 2.6%
  • Over the past 12 months, eight issuers reduced rates by more than three percentage points (300 basis points)
  • Seven issuers reported rate declines of more than 100 bps between 2Q11 and 3Q11

Issuers also reported strong year-on-year improvements in 30+ day delinquency rates, although the quarterly trend indicates that these declines may be bottoming out. 

  • Five of the seven issuers analyzed had 30+ day delinquency rates below 3%
  • Six of the seven issuers reported triple-digit y/y declines in delinquency rates. The largest decline was reported by Bank of America (178 bps), which still has the highest delinquency rate among these seven issuers
  • Between 2Q11 and 3Q11, delinquency rates for two issuers (American Express U.S. Card and U.S. Bank) were unchanged.  Capital One’s 30+ day delinquency rate rose 32 bps in the most recent quarter

The strong declines in charge-off and delinquency rates have enabled issuers to significantly reduce their provisions for credit losses, which have boosted profitability.  However, with delinquency rate declines leveling off, it is expected that reductions in charge-off rates and loss provisions will also abate in the coming quarter.

Therefore, issuers will increasingly look towards revenue growth drivers to maintain and grow profitability.  On the one hand, they will seek to continue to encourage cardholders to increase spending on their cards, which drives up noninterest income.  In addition, with charge-off rates now at relatively low levels, and with revenue growth remaining anemic, credit card issuers may be more inclined in the coming quarters to seek to build card outstandings and drive net interest income, perhaps through a combination of easing underwriting standards, offering strong introductory offers on balance transfers, and even reducing APRs.