Tag Archives: U.S. Bank

Quarterly Card Issuer Financials Reveal Positive (and some Negative) Trends

All of the main U.S. credit card issuers have now reported second quarter 2011 financials, which reveal some interesting trends:

Volumes: In recent quarters, card purchase volumes have grown significantly as issuers have focused attention on positioning cards as spending rather than lending tools. Most issuers continued to grow volumes in 2Q12, although in some cases, the rate of growth was lower than in recent quarters. Wells Fargo (+15%), U.S. Bank (+13%), Chase (+12%) and Capital One (+11%, excluding the impact of the HSBC portfolio acquisition) all reported double-digit year-on-year spending increases. American Express, which has typically led the industry in volume growth, reported a y/y rise in spending of 9%, down from 12% in 1Q12. And both Bank of America and Citibank reported no growth in purchase volumes. Issuers will continue to push volume growth in the coming quarters, as they continue to seek to take payments share from cash and checks.

Outstandings: In recent years, issuers reacted to the financial crisis by significantly deleveraging their credit card portfolios. Now there are signs that this process has bottomed out and a number of issuers are growing outstandings. The largest portfolios continue to decline, with Bank of America (-10%), Citibank (-3%) and Chase (-1%) all reporting year-on-year declines in end-of-period outstandings. On the other hand, banks with smaller portfolios reported y/y growth, including SunTrust (+39%), PNC (+10%), Wells Fargo (+7%), U.S. Bank and Fifth Third (both +5%). In addition, American Express (+5%) and Discover (+4%) both grew outstandings. The prospects for outstandings growth in the industry in general in the quarters will be dependent on general economic conditions, as well as the extent to which issuers want to push loan growth in order to grow revenues.

Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates: As issuers reduced outstandings following the financial crisis in 2008, they also set about tackling charge-offs, which spiked spectacularly in 2008 and 2009. Charge-off rates have declined significantly over the past two years, and in many cases are now below normalized levels. There has been a widespread expectation in recent quarters that the sharp declines in charge-off rates would bottom out; however, the most recent quarter continued the pattern of charge-off rate declines. All of the main issuers reduced charge-off rates by more than 100 bps y/y, and only one main issuer (U.S. Bank) reported a q/q increase in its charge-off rate. American Express, Discover and Capital One reported charge-off rates below 3% in 2Q12. Bank of America remains the issuer with the highest charge-off rate (at 5.27% in 2Q12), but it is notable that this rate is down from levels of more than 14% in 2009. There is an expectation that charge-offs will continue to decline in the coming quarter, given that delinquency rates (which are an indicator of future charge-offs) are also continuing to decline. Some issuers are anticipating that credit quality indices will bottom out or even grow, in particular if the issuers relax underwriting standards to grow outstandings. So, a number of leading issuers are increasing their provision for loan losses.

Revenue: This remains the big negative for issuers, with downward pressure on both net interest income (for those issuers who are continuing to experience outstandings declines) and noninterest income (from the ongoing impact of the CARD Act, which makes it more difficult to generate fee income). Issuers with lower outstandings (Bank of America, Citibank and Chase) reported revenue declines, but issuers who grew outstandings in 2Q12 managed to grow revenues. American Express increased revenue 5%, with net interest income rising 6%. Discover grew total revenues 6%, with a 4% decline in noninterest income more than offset by a 10% growth in net interest income. Prospects for revenue growth in the coming quarters will be very much dependent on the ability to grow outstandings, given the limited scope for generating fee income.

Banks Adapting Branch Networks to New Realities

For decades, bank branches have been focused on everyday banking transactions. However, with electronic self-service channels now handling a dominant share of these transactions, branches have come under intense scrutiny, with many industry commentators predicting the decline and even extinction of the branch channel.  This view has been strengthened by the fact that banks are focusing significant attention on cutting costs in an era where revenue growth remains elusive.  And branches represent a significant cost for banks.

Banks are belately beginning to react to this new environment by developing new branch strategies that recognize its changing role.  Banks are now putting less emphasis on the branch as a channel for day-to-day financial transactions.  Instead, branch investments are being directed to capture the potential of the branch as a key channel for sales, customer relationship development (through the provision of complex and/or sensitive financial advice), and branding (even customers who bank online tend to want the physical reassurance of the branch).  In addition, banks are increasingly aware of the research value of branches, both in terms of directly surveying branch visitors as well as testing new product or service innovations in selected branches before full roll-outs.

Some examples of new bank branch strategies:

  • In a presentation this week at the Morgan Stanley Financials Conference, PNC outlined a vision of its branch network that involves a more dynamic definition of branches, which includes multiple physical formats, as well as greater integration with both remote sales people and electronic channels.
  • Huntington recently reported branch plans driven by both the desire for cost savings (closing traditional branches and opening in-store branches) as well as to leverage the latest technology (such as branch image capture and processing) to drive efficiency.
  • U.S. Bank has three branch models, which enables the bank to tailor branch investments to market composition and opportunity.
  • Wells Fargo continues to have a strong commitment to the branch channel, as it claims that the vast majority of financial products are bought in a branch. It follows a specific model for branch productivity that is based on both in network density and retail execution, and which is seen in the following chart from its recent Investor Day:
  • At its 2012 Investor Day, Chase discussed a number of branch innovations designed to reduce costs and improve the customer experience. These include self-service tellers, paperless tellers, instant-issue cards and access to remote sales specialists through video. It is testing other innovations like next-generation ATMs, paperless sales, and mobile demonstration zones. Chase is also continuing to deploy additional sales personnel in branches; at the end of 1Q12, Chase had more than 6,000 sales specialists (y/y increase of 21%).

As electronic channels continue to change how consumers and businesses interact with their banks, many banks are reassessing the level and type of investments in their branch networks.  Though most are still committed to the branch model—noting its importance in sales and understanding that many customers still want to have the reassurance of a physical presence—the role of the branch is evolving and this has important implications for issues like branch sizing, design, staffing, technology deployment, and merchandising, as well as integration with other channels.

Credit Metrics for U.S. Card Issuers Continue to Improve

A study of recently-published financials for the leading U.S. credit card issuers reveals that their charge-off rates continue to decline, and that this trend looks set to continue in the coming quarters.

The following table summarizes 1Q12 managed credit card charge-off rates for 11 of the leading U.S. card issuers.  Ten of the eleven issuers reported year-on-year charge-off rate declines of more than 200 bps. The exception was American Express, which had the lowest rate.  The largest decline came from SunTrust, whose rate fell from 8.68% in 1Q11 to 4.83% in 1Q12. Seven of the eleven reported quarterly declines in their charge-off rates.

Of course, many industry observers are questioning when and at what level charge-off rate declines will bottom out.  Trends in 30+ day delinquency rates typically are a predictor of trends in charge-offs, and it is notable that of the seven issuers who published 30+ day delinquency rate data in the most recent quarter, all reported both year-on-year and quarterly declines.

Therefore, we should expect charge-off rates to continue to decline in the coming quarters. However, some issuers are now at or below historic averages (for example, Discover claimed that its charge-off and delinquency rates are at 25-year lows), so will have less scope for further declines.  In addition, these low charge-off rates may encourage some issuers to loosen underwriting criteria in order to grow loans, which can generate some upward pressure on charge-off rates.  Card portfolio acquisitions and disposals can also have an impact on charge-off rates; Capital One reported in its quarterly financials that it expects the acquisition of the HSBC card portfolio to raise charge-off rates by 75 bps.