10 takeaways from leading credit card issuer 2Q15 financials

July 27, 2015

The major U.S. credit card issuers have now published their quarterly financials. A review of these reports by EMI revealed the following 10 trends:

Outstandings are growing. Credit card loan growth is once again being led by regional bank card issuers (such as SunTrust and Wells Fargo who tend to cross-sell cards to existing bank customers), as well as card “monolines” (such as Capital One and American Express). Banks with national credit card operations report lower growth (or even declines) as a result of the lingering effects from the financial crisis, runoff of promotional rate balances, as well as high payment rates. But even here we are seeing signs of growth: although Bank of America reported a 1% y/y decline in average outstandings, it also reported its largest quarter for new account origination since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Volume continues to grow, but with some slowdown. Some leading issuers continue to grow volume at double-digit rates (Wells Fargo grew loans and volume by 15%, boosted in part by the bank’s acquisition of the Dillard’s portfolio). Other issuers had lower volume growth, and many pointed to the impact of lower gas prices. For example, Discover reported volume growth of just 2%, but absent gas prices, this growth was 5%.
Net charge-off rates continue to decline to historic lows. For many leading issuers, net charge-off rates are well below historic norms. In addition, the rates continue to decline; of the 13 issuers studied, 12 reported year-on-year charge-off rate declines.
30+ day delinquency rates are also declining. Delinquency rates tend to be a leading indicator of future charge-offs, so it is notable that 30+ day delinquency rates continue to decline.
The profit picture is mixed for issuers. Six leading issuers provide credit card profitability data, as they operate standalone payment units. Four of the six issuers reported y/y declines in profitability as growing expenses exceeded revenues. However, Chase increased net income for its Card Services unit by 33%, driven by lower costs (9% decline in noninterest expense, and 10% fall in provision for loan losses). American Express grew its U.S. Cards net income by 15%, as revenue growth of 6% and a 4% decline in provisions exceeded a 4% increase in noninterest expense.
Growth in lending and volume are driving revenue growth. In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis and subsequent industry retrenchment, credit card industry revenues fell significantly. As the economy stabilized and then grew, leading issuers continued to struggle to attain revenue growth. Now the return to outstandings growth, as well as continued loan growth, is finally enabling issuers to increase revenues.
To support this revenue growth, card issuers’ noninterest expenses are increasing. The rise in revenues is driving growth in expense areas like marketing and rewards costs. Of the five issuers providing noninterest expense data, four reported y/y increases, led by Discover (+18%) and U.S. Bank (+13%).
Provisions for loan losses are (mainly) decreasing. As net charge-off and delinquency rates continue to decline, three issuers reported y/y declines in their provisions for loan losses. However, Capital One and U.S. Bank increased provisions, with Capital One growing provisions by 69%.
Issuers are increasing credit card yield. Of the seven leading issuers who reported card yield in their financials, six reported y/y growth. The exception was Wells Fargo, which had the highest yield in 2Q15. However, five of the seven reported q/q declines; the exceptions were Fifth Third and SunTrust, which had the lowest yield among reporting issuers.
Issuers are using a range of channels for new account acquisition. In general, cards issuers are continuing to reduce their dependence on direct mail for new card acquisition, and are focusing more investment on digital and branch channels. Chase reported that its online channel accounted for 62% of new card accounts in 2Q15. Even though Citi is continuing to cut its U.S. branch network, it reported that credit card acquisition via branches was up 10% on a same-store basis.

Banks Grew Marketing Budgets and Marketing Ratios Modestly in 2014

February 26, 2015

EMI analysis of recently-published FDIC data on 2014 marketing spending for 17 leading banks found that banks are beginning to grow their marketing budgets in order to drive revenue growth in a growing economy. The scale of the increase was relatively modest, a trend that we expect to continue in 2015, as banks look to marry their desire for revenue generation with a continued need to exercise a tight rein on costs.

Specific findings from our analysis:

Total marketing spending for these 17 banks rose 4% between 2013 and 2014. 10 of the 17 banks increased their marketing budgets, 6 cut their budgets, while SunTrust’s marketing expenditure was unchanged.
Net revenues for the 17 banks fell 2%; as a result, their marketing-to-revenue ratios rose by 16 basis points to 2.84%.
Chase had by far the largest marketing budget at nearly $2.8 billion, up 2% from 2013. Four other leading banks (American Express, Citigroup, Capital One and Bank of America) had marketing budgets of more than $1 billion.
Of the 10 banks that grew their marketing budgets in 2014, 5 also showed increased revenues. The 4 banks with the lowest marketing-to-revenue ratios reported revenue declines between 2013 and 2014.
The variation in marketing-to-revenue ratios among these banks is huge. American Express and Discover are primarily credit card issuers and lack branch networks; they tend to have marketing-to-revenue ratios of 8-10%, in line with fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. National bank marketing ratios tend to be around 3%, while regional bank ratios are generally between 1% and 2%.
Even within these bank categories, there are significant variations. Capital One is a regional bank with a very significant credit card portfolio, so its marketing-to-revenue ratio (6.1%) falls between a monoline and a regional bank. Wells Fargo trailed its national bank peers in marketing spend. Although it grew its 2014 marketing budget by 8% to $613 million, its marketing-to-revenue ratio remains below 1%.

Time for U.S. Credit Card Issuers To Shift Focus to Lower FICOs?

September 5, 2014

One of the themes in leading credit card issuers’ 2Q14 financials was the expectation of a return to steady outstandings growth. Even those top issuers who continued to report y/y outstandings declines—such as Bank of America and Capital One—indicated that growth is on the way. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, issuers pulled back from the prime and sub-prime FICO segments and concentrated their business growth initiatives on the superprime segment. As issuers now look to generate outstandings growth, one of the strategies open to them is to target the lower FICO segments. However, EMI analysis shows that issuers continue to focus on the higher FICO categories. The chart below shows that, for most issuers, lower FICO segments’ share of total consumer credit card outstandings continues to decline.

Even though issuers use different FICO categories, the chart enables us to compare the FICO composition of credit card portfolios between different issuers.

Consumers with credit scores of less than 680 accounted for 32% of Wells Fargo’s outstandings at the end of 2Q14, compared to only 18% of Bank of America’s outstandings. This may help explain why Wells Fargo’s average credit card outstandings rose 10% y/y in 2Q14, compared to a 2% decline for Bank of America.
Similarly, 17% of Discover’s outstandings are held by consumers with FICOs of <660, compared to just 5% of Chase outstandings. Discover reported 6% y/y growth in outstandings in 2Q14, compared to just 1% growth for Chase.

Looking over a longer period (2Q11-2Q14), we see a consistent pattern of the lower FICO segments losing share of consumer credit card outstandings. For Chase, consumers with FICOs of less than 660 accounted for 14% of outstandings at the end of 2Q14, compared to 20% at the end of 2Q11. However, for some issuers, the share decline in lower FICO segments has not been very dramatic. For example, FICOs of <640 accounted for 17% of outstandings at the end of 2Q14, a share loss of just two percentage points since 2Q11.

As consumer confidence returns, issuers expect to grow outstandings in the coming quarters. However, to achieve their goals, they will need to develop strategies for a broader FICO range. In addition to continuing to target more affluent consumers, issuers will need to develop strategies, products, pricing and messaging to reconnect with prime, lower-prime and sub-prime consumer segments.