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Credit card issuers show renewed interest in private-label cards

In recent months, some leading credit card issuers have shown a growing interest in creating or growing private-label credit card portfolios:

  • Capital One announced the acquisition of HSBC’s $30 million card portfolio in August 2011.  This follows its April 2011 purchase of Kohl’s private-label portfolio.  In reporting 3Q11 financials, Capital One indicated that it would be interested in acquiring more private-label portfolios.
  • This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Wells Fargo is actively exploring whether to issue private label cards
  • In reporting 3Q11 financials, Citigroup announced that it would be moving its private-label card portfolio from Citi Holdings (it asset-disposal unit) to Citicorp.  And it recent renewed its private-label card issuing deals with Shell, Sunoco and Sears.
  • TD Bank has recently entered into a number of deals to issue cards for: Cartier; Furniture First; and Bailey, Banks and Biddle.

There are a number of reasons for issuers’ renewed interest in this market:

  • Credit quality metrics have improved significantly in recent quarters, for both own-branded and private-label cards, with very strong declines in charge-off and delinquency rates.  For example, the net credit loss rate for Citi’s Retail Partner Cards portfolio fell from 12.24% in 3Q10 to 7.51% in 3Q11.  During the same period, the portfolio’s delinquency rate fell from 7.94% to 5.70%.
  • With loan-to-deposit ratios now well below 100% for many leading banks, and with continued pressure on net interest margins, banks are looking to grow loans in new categories
  • Given the recent growth in commercial and corporate lending, banks are also seeking to cement relationships with large corporate clients
  • The CARD Act has impacted revenues and profitability from issuers’ own-branded card operations.  As a result, some issuers are looking to build scale to their card operations by investing in various card categories

In building their private-label card portfolios, issuers need to understand how the marketing of credit card has changed in recent years.  Today, credit card marketing is more focused on encouraging cardholders to allocate a greater share of their everyday spending to cards, rather than cash or checks.   And even though outstandings are showing some tentative signs of growth, issuers are not aggressively chasing loan growth with aggressive interest rates and low underwriting standards.  In building their private-label portfolios, issuers need to apply these learnings and take the longer-term view, in order to avoid the mistakes of the past.

Credit quality continues to improve for leading U.S. card issuers

The leading U.S. credit card issuers continue to report strong improvements in their net charge-off rates.

  • Of the 11 issuers analyzed, eight had 3Q11 net charge-off rates below 5%.  Four had rates below 4%, with American Express leading the industry, at 2.6%
  • Over the past 12 months, eight issuers reduced rates by more than three percentage points (300 basis points)
  • Seven issuers reported rate declines of more than 100 bps between 2Q11 and 3Q11

Issuers also reported strong year-on-year improvements in 30+ day delinquency rates, although the quarterly trend indicates that these declines may be bottoming out. 

  • Five of the seven issuers analyzed had 30+ day delinquency rates below 3%
  • Six of the seven issuers reported triple-digit y/y declines in delinquency rates. The largest decline was reported by Bank of America (178 bps), which still has the highest delinquency rate among these seven issuers
  • Between 2Q11 and 3Q11, delinquency rates for two issuers (American Express U.S. Card and U.S. Bank) were unchanged.  Capital One’s 30+ day delinquency rate rose 32 bps in the most recent quarter

The strong declines in charge-off and delinquency rates have enabled issuers to significantly reduce their provisions for credit losses, which have boosted profitability.  However, with delinquency rate declines leveling off, it is expected that reductions in charge-off rates and loss provisions will also abate in the coming quarter.

Therefore, issuers will increasingly look towards revenue growth drivers to maintain and grow profitability.  On the one hand, they will seek to continue to encourage cardholders to increase spending on their cards, which drives up noninterest income.  In addition, with charge-off rates now at relatively low levels, and with revenue growth remaining anemic, credit card issuers may be more inclined in the coming quarters to seek to build card outstandings and drive net interest income, perhaps through a combination of easing underwriting standards, offering strong introductory offers on balance transfers, and even reducing APRs.

U.S. Card Issuers: 3Q11 Spending and Lending Trends

An analysis of 3Q11 outstanding and volume data for leading U.S. credit card issuers reveals:

  • Signs of growth in outstandings. For the 11 issuers in the study
    • Four reported both year-on-year (y/y) and linked-quarter (q/q) growth in average credit card outstandings.
    • Five reported y/y declines, but q/q increases, indicating a recent transition to growth.
    • Two issuers had both y/y and q/q declines in outstandings.  One is Bank of America, whose high rates of decline are indicative of its particular challenges. The other is Capital One, but it is worth noting that its Domestic Card portfolio includes a run-off installment loan portfolio; excluding this portfolio, Capital One’s credit card outstandings are growing.

 

  • Continued strong volume growth (in this case, we just look at y/y growth for comparison purposes, due to the seasonal nature of spending):
    • Capital One has the strongest y/y growth, but this is part due to its acquisition of the Kohl’s private-label card portfolio.  Excluding this acquisition, Capital One still recorded double-digit volume growth.
    • American Express continues to report very strong volume growth in both consumer and small business spending (growth rate for the latter was 15%).

  • Volume growth rates continue to outstrip outstandings growth, and is indicative of a fundamental shift in the industry following the financial crisis, away from a lend-centric and towards a spend-centric model. This is seen in the persistently high APRs and relative scarcity of balance transfer introductory offers, but also in the very large bonus points/miles offers to drive both initial and ongoing card purchases.