Tag Archives: U.S. Bank

Commercial Lending Trends in U.S. Banks’ 3Q12 financials

A noteworthy trend among large U.S. banks’ 3Q11 financials has been the significant rise in commercial lending. This continues a trend that has been evident in recent quarters. Of course, the current strong growth follows significant declines in commercial lending in 2008 and 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis.

Some of these banks have boosted overall commercial loan growth rates by targeting specific industry sectors. Comerica generated overall commercial loan growth of 21%, but grew its energy loan portfolio by 62% and its tech and life sciences portfolio by 36%. Other banks are following the industry targeting trend. Huntington recently launched a new energy lending initiative, and Associated Bank established a Healthcare Industry Banking Group.

It is notable, however, that uncertainty regarding the Presidential election and the looming fiscal cliff led to an overall 22 bps decline in y/y commercial loan growth rates between 2Q12 and 3Q12 for the 14 banks in our study, from 13.52% to 13.33%.

Although growth rates are robust, loan utilization rates remain relatively low, which can again be attributed to the economic uncertainty as well as many larger companies being flush with cash. The relatively low utilization rates indicate that commercial loans growth could accelerate once again if and when fiscal issues are resolved and economic confidence increases. And some banks are already seeing improved utilization rates:

  • Comerica’s utilization rate was 48.2% in 3Q12, having hit a low of 44.2% in 1Q11.
  • Regions’ utilization rate grew from 39.8% in 4Q10 to 44.4% in 2Q12.

Even as banks grow commercial lending, charge-off rates continue to decline. EMI’s analysis of charge-off data from 11 leading banks found an average commercial loan charge-off rate of 0.25% in 3Q12, down 29 bps year-over-year, and 11 bps from the previous quarter.

Finally, both low interest rates and increased competition continue to exercise downward pressure on commercial loan yields. Our analysis of yield data from 13 leading U.S. banks found that the average yield in 3Q12 was 3.81%, down 35 bps y/y and 19 bps q/q.

Continued improvement in credit quality metrics for leading bank card issuers

All of the leading bank card issuers reported continued improvement in key credit quality metrics for their credit card portfolios in 1Q11, as seen in the following charts.

As a result of these improvement, banks have slashed their provision for credit losses, which has significant boosted profitability.

However, banks’ credit card outstandings are continuing to decline.  In reporting financials, a number of banks reported that they expect outstandings to grow in the second half of the year, and in arecent months, we have seen signs of more aggressive acquisition activity (such as growing direct mail volume and re-appearance of lengthly 0% balance transfer offers).  However, banks will certainly be very cautious in their efforts to grow lending in the coming quarters, as they seek to avoid any repitition of the over-exhuberant lending climate taht prevailed in the middle of the last decade.

Market-Specific Metrics Inform Bank Branch Network Investments

The emergence of virtual channels, the need to cut costs and speculation of more industry consolidation are all spurring banks to reconsider their branch networks.  Recently, EMI Strategic Marketing Inc. published blogs on the changing role of the branch, as well as trends in branch numbers for leading U.S. banks.

Banks have reiterated their commitment to the branch channel, but many are unlikely to maintain branch numbers at current levels.  Bank decisions of branch numbers and deployments are increasingly based on an analysis to the bank’s relative strengths in different markets.  Is the bank’s branch network spread too thinly, with few branches and low deposit shares in many markets?  Does it have critical mass in terms of branch numbers and/or deposit share in particular market? If it does not have sufficient scale at present, should it expand its branch network organically or through acquisition? Or should it leave some markets?

EMI Strategic Marketing Inc. analyzed end-2Q11 FDIC data on the branch footprint of the top 15 retail banks. (Note: this does not include M&A activity over the past year, such as PNC’s acquisition of RBC Bank.)  We focused on the number of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) where these banks had branches, branch concentration levels, and market strength indicators.

  • The banks with the most extensive branch networks are Bank of America and Wells Fargo, who both have branches in more than 200 MSA markets.
  • Regional banks naturally have a more concentrated branch presence.  RBS Citizens, PNC and M&T all have more than 60% of their branches in 10 markets.
    • RBS Citizens has top-three share in only 14% of the 49 markets where it has a physical presence.  Recent speculation indicates it may sell off its branch network in Illinois and Michigan.  The bank has branches in seven MSAs in these two states, but does not have a top-three deposit share in any of these markets.
  • Market strength: Wells Fargo has a top-three deposit share in 70% of its MSAs.   Four other banks (M&T, Bank of America, SunTrust and PNC) are ranked in the top three in more than 40% of their markets.
  • In late 2010, Citigroup announced that it would be concentrating on 16 U.S. metro markets.  This helps to explain why 61% of Citibank’s branches are in just 10 MSAs.  On the other hand, it has five or fewer branches in more than half of its markets.  Given its stated objective to concentrate its efforts on about 15 metro markets, we can expect Citibank to leave many of these markets where it has a token presence.  However, it will be aiming to significantly grow share in its target markets.
  • Capital One, which has built a retail branch presence in recent years through acquisition, has 84% of its branches in just 10 MSAs. (In fact, 57% of Capital One branches are in just two MSAs: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV and New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA.)