Discover 2Q11 financials: leading indicators for other credit card issuers

Discover Financial posted second quarter 2011 financials this morning.  As Discover reports quarterly financials a month before other leading card issuers, we look to its financials to get an early read on broader trends in the credit card industry

The following summarizes some key credit card metrics in Discover 2Q11 financials:

  • Charge-off rate: continued to improve, with a decline of 95 bps in the quarter to 5.01%
  • Delinquency rate: the 30+ day delinquency rate fell 80 bps to 2.79% (Discover reported this as an all-time low)
  • End-of-period loans: fell 1% y/y, but this decline is tailing  off (y/y was was 3% in 1Q11)
  • Volume: Discover Card sales volume rose 9% y/y, while total Discover Card volume grew 11%

Discover does not break out revenue and provision for loan loss figures for its credit card operations, but rather reports them for the total company.

  • Net interest income: rose 4% y/y, with a 1% rise in interest income, and a 6% fall in interest expense
  • Other income: increased 6% y/y, driven in part by a 16% rise in loan fee income
  • Provision for loan losses: fell 76% y/y to $176MM

In summary, we are seeing a continuation of recent trends: improvement in credit quality metrics; spending but no loan growth; and profitability driven by lower provisions for loan losses, rather than revenue growth.

However, with charge-off rates now close to 5% and 30+ day delinquency rates at an all-time low, Discover is shifting its focus to growing outstandings.  It reported that the decline in outstandings is bottoming out, and it anticipates growth in the coming quarters. And to push this growth, Discover grew marketing spend 27% y/y in 2Q11.

However, issuers’ interest in growing outstandings is limited by continued weak consumer demand.  This is leading to some issuers to looking to acquire card portfolios (e.g., Capital One’s recent private-label portfolio acquisitions, and its bid for HSBC’s U.S. card portfolio), or refocusing attention on acquiring non-card loan portfolios (note Discover’s own recent acquisitions of Tree.com’s Home Loan Center, as well as its earlier acquisition of The Student Loan Corporation from Citigroup).

Card networks report strong growth in credit and debit card spending

Visa and MasterCard both reported quarterly financials this week, which enables us to develop a picture of how the four main U.S. card networks (Visa, MasterCard, American Express and Discover) performed in terms of card volume.

See the table below for details on the card networks’ total U.S. card volume for 1Q11, with comparisons to 1Q10. Note:

  • Strong year-on-year (y/y) growth in both debit card (+12.0%) and credit card (+9.2%) spending.  Even though credit card spending growth continues to trail debit cards, growth rates have recovered in recent quarters, following significant declines in 2009.  This reflects the efforts of leading credit card issuers to promote spending, as outstandings continue to decline.
  • Strongest credit card volume performance came from American Express, which enjoyed double-digit growth in all customer segments (13% in consumer, 14% in small business, and 18% in corporate).  Its share of total credit card spend rose from 24.6% in 1Q10 to 25.9% in 1Q11
  • Discover reported 24% debit card growth through its Pulse PIN debit network.  Visa also reported double-digit debit volume growth.
  • Visa’s share of total (credit and debit) card spend among the four networks rose 46 bps y/y to 51.9% in 1Q11

Volumes for Leading Card Issuers Are Recovering

In their most recent quarterly financials, the leading U.S. credit card issuers continued to show improvement in spending volumes. Credit card volumes were significantly hit in 2009, as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending, and as credit card issuers retrenched and reduced account numbers.

The following chart shows that most leading issuers returned to year-on-year growth in credit card volume in 2010, and that the rate of growth has steadily improved.

The reasons for the recent improvement in card volume are:

  • Overall economic recovery, with corresponding growth in consumer spending
  • Issuers’ promotion of card spending as a source of revenue, in particular as outstandings growth has been largely absent

A number of card issuers recently predicted that card outstandings should grow in the second half of 2011, but we expect that issuers will continue to push card volume, and aim for a good balance between spending and lending.