Tag Archives: Credit card

Continued improvement in credit quality metrics for leading bank card issuers

All of the leading bank card issuers reported continued improvement in key credit quality metrics for their credit card portfolios in 1Q11, as seen in the following charts.

As a result of these improvement, banks have slashed their provision for credit losses, which has significant boosted profitability.

However, banks’ credit card outstandings are continuing to decline.  In reporting financials, a number of banks reported that they expect outstandings to grow in the second half of the year, and in arecent months, we have seen signs of more aggressive acquisition activity (such as growing direct mail volume and re-appearance of lengthly 0% balance transfer offers).  However, banks will certainly be very cautious in their efforts to grow lending in the coming quarters, as they seek to avoid any repitition of the over-exhuberant lending climate taht prevailed in the middle of the last decade.

U.S. Credit Card Issuer Emphasis on More Affluent Consumers Reflected in Latest Outstandings

The latest quarterly regulatory filings from some of the leading U.S. credit card issuers reveal that outstandings held by cardholders with higher FICO scores are accounting for an increasing share of total credit card portfolios. Over the past year, there has been ample evidence of issuers targeting more affluent consumers with new products and aggressive offers, while continuing to maintain high underwriting standards.

Although these issuers do not use the same FICO-score categories, the following charts show that all issuers reported continued declines in outstandings held by cardholders with lower FICOs (below 660), while oustandings for cardholders with higher FICOs either had smaller declines or in fact grew over the past year.

  • Chase: Overall, there was no change in Chase end-of-period (EOP) credit card outstandings between 1Q11 and 1Q12. However, cardholders with FICOs of 660+ (which accounted for 82% of total outstandings in 1Q12) rose 4%, while outstandings with FICOs below 660 fell by 15%.

  • Discover uses the same FICO categorization as Chase. It reported a 4% total rise in EOP card outstandings between 1Q11 and 1Q12. FICOs of 660+ rose 10%, while FICOs <660 fell 18%. FICOs of 660+ accounted for 81% of total Discover credit card outstandings at the end of 1Q12, just below the rate for Chase.

  • Bank of America uses different FICO categories, with a cut-off point at 620. Total outstandings fell 10% y/y to the end of 1Q12, but the decline in FICOs below 620 (-41%) was much higher than that for FICOs of 620+ (-6%). FICOs of 620+ now account for 92% of total outstandings, compared to 88% in 1Q11.

  • Like Bank of America, Citibank’s total EOP U.S. credit card outstandings fell y/y (by 4%), and there were declines in all FICO categories, but again higher FICOs reported lower declines. At Citi, FICOs of 620+ now represent 91% of total outstandings, up from 85% at the end of 1Q11.

  • Unlike other issuers, Wells Fargo provides a wide range of FICO categories, which have been summarized into three categories below. Total Wells Fargo credit card outstandings rose 4% y/y, but there was an 11% decline among sub-prime FICOs below 600. For FICOs of 760+, outstandings rose 16% and now represent 25% of outstandings, up from 23% in 1Q11.

Card Networks Report Robust Purchase Volume Growth

With MasterCard and Visa reporting quarterly financials in recent days, we now have a fuller picture of purchase volume trends for the main U.S. card networks.  Each reported relatively strong year-on-year growth in U.S. card spending, led by MasterCard (+13%) and American Express (+12%).

It is notable that Visa and MasterCard are following different paths in growing purchase volume.  Visa, which has been the dominant debit card issuer, is reporting continued slower growth in debit card purchase volume.  This is due to some debit card portfolios switching to MasterCard, as well as the impact of the Durbin Amendment, and has resulted in Visa’s credit card growth outstripping its debit card growth for the past three quarters.

In contrast, MasterCard has reported accelerating U.S. debit card purchase volume growth.  Credit card volume growth has also accelerated, but continues to trail debit card volume.

American Express has consistently recorded double-digit volume growth as it follows its spend-centric approach.  Discover also reported strong growth in 2011, but this has trailed off in recent quarters.

During this period of strong purchase volume growth for both credit cards and debit cards, credit card outstandings have continued to decline, emphasizing the transition in the credit card sector from a lend-centric to spend-centric orientation.  Many leading U.S. credit card issuers are expecting outstandings to grow slightly in the coming quarters, but it is probable that purchase volume growth will continue to outstrip loan growth for the foreseeable future.

Card volume growth should continue to be significantly higher than overall U.S. consumer spending growth, as consumers switch from cash and checks, with particular growth opportunities for cards in categories where they have traditionally had small shares of payment volumes.

In the longer term, card networks and issuers need to plan for new opportunities and challenges created by a changed payments landscape, characterized by demographic shifts, new payments technologies and changing shopping behavior.