Tag Archives: Bank of America

Trends and Implications from Credit Card Issuers’ 2Q13 Results

After analyzing the 2Q13 financial results for the leading U.S. credit card issuers, EMI has identified some common themes and emerging trends.

  • Outstandings: At first glance, the continued decline in outstandings for the top issuers is consistent with trends we have seen in recent years. However, some of these issuers stated their belief that this extended sequence of declines is coming to an end. Chase claimed that its credit card outstandings have reach an inflection point and it expects growth in the coming quarters. Bank of America also emphasized signs of recent outstandings growth, and claimed that card issuance was at its highest level since 2008. During the quarter, strongest growth rates were reported by monolines and regional banks, but these smaller issuers may face renewed competition from the top issuers in the coming quarters. Some issuers reported yield declines in 2Q13, with Discover attributing a 24 basis point yield decline over the past year to an increase in promotional rate balances and a decline in higher rate balances.

  • Volume: Many of the leading issuers improved their card volume growth rates in the second quarter, as the economy continued to recovery, and as consumers responded to rewards-based promotions. In the coming quarters, expect issuers to continue to promote their rewards programs (in particular to attract more affluent cardholders), while increasing their focus on introductory offers and APRs as they seek to grow loans.

  • Revenue: In recent years, credit card revenue growth has been anemic, as issuers have struggled with loan growth, and have had to adjust to new fee structures following the CARD Act. However, the latest financials provided some encouraging news. American Express grew net interest income 6% y/y (benefitting from a 4% rise in outstandings) while its noninterest income rose 5% (driven by an 8% rise in volume). Discover generated even stronger growth in both net interest income (+9%) and noninterest income (+14%). Given the fundamental changes to the card industry in recent years, expect issuers to continue to seek balanced overall revenue growth between net interest income and noninterest income, and avoid an over-dependence on either aggressive lending or fees to meet their revenue targets.
  • Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates: Issuers continue to benefit from declines in charge-off rates. Of the 11 leading issuers who reported charge-off rates, 8 reported y/y declines, while one issuer was unchanged. Two issuers (American Express and Discover) had charge-off rates below 3%, while 5 other issuers (Chase, Citi, Fifth Third, PNC and Wells Fargo) had rates below 4%. In addition, 30+ day delinquency rates also continue to decline, with 8 of 9 issuers reporting y/y declines (the exception was Capital One, due to its acquisition of the HSBC portfolio).

Looking ahead, to the extent that issuers focus on outstandings growth (with more aggressive introductory offers on balance transfers, lower APRs and more relaxed underwriting standards), both charge-off and delinquency rates should rise from their current low levels. However, recent trends in outstandings and volume indicate that consumers increasingly see their credit cards as an efficient, convenient and more rewarding payment method, and less simply as an easy source of credit. Whether this is a temporary phenomenon in the aftermath of the financial crisis or a long-term change has profound consequences for how credit cards are positioned, promoted and priced.

Tentative Recovery in U.S. Credit Card Lending Continues in 1Q13

EMI’s analysis of recently-published U.S. bank data by the FDIC reveals that credit card outstandings rose 1.6% y/y to the end of 1Q13.  Outstandings have been recovering in recent quarters, following a protracted period of declines as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.  In addition, net credit card charge-offs continue to decline, falling 12% y/y in 1Q13.

Our analysis also finds that:

  • 1,238 U.S. banks (19% of the total) have card assets, with 6% of banks having more than $1 million in card assets.  55 banks have more than $100 million in outstandings, with just 23 banks holding more than $1 billion in credit card loans.
    • Of the 55% with more than $100 million in assets, 31(56%) reported increases in their credit card loan portfolios between end-1Q12 and end-1Q13
  • The three largest credit card issuers–Citibank, Chase and Bank of America–all continued to report credit card loan declines, as they continue to deleverage.  The cumulative decline for these three issuers was 5%.
  • The former “monolines”–American Express, Discover and Capital One–all increased outstandings.  Capital One reported a 44% increase, largely due to the acquisition of the HSBC card portfolio.  American Express grew credit card loans 6%, with Discover’s outstandings rising by 7%.
  • Many regional banks continued to increase credit card lending, albeit from significantly lower bases than their national bank counterparts.

These trends in credit card outstandings–slow overall growth, declines among the big three issuers, growth for monolines and regional banks–are consistent with industry predictions that EMI published in a blog earlier this year.

U.S. Banks Maintain Commercial Lending Momentum in 1Q13

EMI analysis of recently-published financial results for 14 leading U.S. banks revealed that that strong growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) loan portfolios continued in the most recent quarter. These banks grew their C&I loan portfolios by an average of 12% y/y, which was the same growth rate as in 4Q12, and up from an 11% portfolio growth rate in 1Q12.

Strongest growth was reported by regional banks like PNC (boosted by the acquisition of RBC Bank), KeyBank, Fifth Third and Huntington, as well as Capital One. However, it is worth noting that 9 of the 14 banks reported lower C&I loan y/y growth rates in 1Q13 vs. 1Q12. The overall growth rate increased from 11% to 12% during this period, as Bank of America (which has the largest C&I loan portfolio) increased its C&I loan y/y growth from a paltry 2% in 1Q12 to a more robust 8% in 1Q13.

The bar chart below shows that gap between C&I and overall average loan portfolio growth rates, with 12 of the 14 banks reporting higher C&I loan growth. The bank with the largest gap was Chase, which grew average commercial banking loans by 13.7% y/y, while its overall loan portfolio only grew by 1.3%. The two exceptions were Capital One (whose non-C&I growth was boosted by some recent acquisitions) and BB&T. In fact, three banks (Regions, SunTrust and Bank of America) reported declines in their total loan portfolios between 1Q12 and 1Q13, even though C&I loan portfolios rose by high single-digit rates.

C&I loan charge-off rates continue to improve, with an average rate of 0.22% in 1Q13, down 19 basis points (bps) y/y and a reduction of 7 bps from the previous quarter. However, there is evidence that competition for C&I loans continues to increase, with an average yield of 3.63% in 1Q13, which represents declines of 40 bps y/y and 9 bps q/q. A recent EMI blog identified a number of banks that are leveraging innovative marketing approaches to differentiate from competitors in this increasingly competitive space.