Reports of branch channels’ demise greatly exaggerated

A few months ago, Bank of America reported that it would consolidate reducing the size of its branch network, with speculation that it would eventually close up to 10% of branches (Bank of America has grown its branch network aggressively over the past decade (organically and through acquisition) and even with a 10% decline, the bank would have approx. 5,500 branches).

Some industry commentators saw this announcement as indicative of the long-term demise of the branch channel.   With self-service channels accounting for a majority of service transactions, branch density does not have to be as high, so some branch consolidation is inevitable.

However, the bigger change is the repositioning of branches as platforms for more complex transactions that require one-to-one transactions with specialists.  The staff mix in branches will change, with fewer tellers needed to handle everyday transactions, and greater deployment of sales specialists (Chase recently reported that it grew its sales specialists from 5,454 in 1Q09 to 6,319 in 1Q10).

Change in C&I Lending Trend?

The latest Federal Reserve update on Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S. (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/) reported that commercial and industrial lending rose$2 billion, to $1,374 billion in the week ended October 228, 2009.  This is a break is the long and consistent decline in C&I loans (with a fall of 13% since September 2008).  However, it is too premature to say whether this is a blip, or whether the decline in such lending has plateaued.

3Q09 Bank deposit trends

The large U.S. banks continued to reduce rates paid on interest-bearing deposits in 3Q09, as deposit competition eases.  Many banks reported q/q declines in average deposits.  However, with banks’ loan portfolios also shrinking, most of these banks improved their loan-to-deposit ratios.

The largest banks (Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Chase) offer by far the lowest rates; Wells Fargo’s rate fell 3 bps between 2Q09 to 3Q09, to 0.57%.  Regional banks maintain relatively higher rates, with KeyBank’s average rate above 2%.

For most banks, there was stronger growth in noninterest-bearing deposits, with many regional banks reporting double-digit annualized increases between 2Q09 and 3Q09.

Bank

Average Interest-Bearing Deposits ($BN, 3Q09)

Annualized Change in Interest-Bearing Deposits
(2Q09-3Q09)

Rate on Interest-Bearing Deposits (3Q09)

Rate Change (2Q09-3Q09)

Non-Interest Deposits (3Q09)

Annualized change in Non-Interest Deposits (2Q09-3Q09)

Bank of America (domestic)

$654.2

+6%

0.98%

-24 bps

$259.6

+18%

Wells Fargo

$633.4

-3%

0.57%

-3 bps

$172.6

-4%

Chase

$661.0

-7%

0.65%

-5 bps

N/A

N/A

PNC

$146.9

-13%

1.04%

-21 bps

$41.8

+8%

U.S. Bank

$129.4

+11%

0.92%

-8 bps

$37.0

-4%

SunTrust

$95.2

-2%

1.40%

-27 bps

$24.5

-1%

Capital One

$103.1

-15%

1.86%

-22 bps

$12.8

+6%

BB&T

$89.9

+56%

1.37%

-26 bps

$17.4

+50%

Regions

$73.7

-5%

1.62%

-16 bps

$21.1

+14%

Key

$54.4

-3%

2.10%

-12 bps

$13.6

+37%

Zions

$31.9

-4%

1.21%

-25 bps

$11.4

+27%

M&I

$33.5

+12%

1.58%

-13 bps

$7.9

+28%

Huntington

$33.4

-1%

1.92%

-19 bps

$6.2

+5%